Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-18.
Street snapshot
The USD price target averages $272 (median $250) but spans a wide $190 to $380 across 33 estimates.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst counts shown explicitly; recommendation respondents: 39.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 9, Outperform 2, Hold 24, Underperform 1, Sell 3 | 39 |
| Consensus score | 2.67 | 39 |
| Target price | mean 272.5; high 380.0; low 190.0 | 33 |
Forward table
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst count is the estimate count for each period and metric.
| Period | Metric | Mean | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY0E | Revenue | 26,518 | 11.6% | 30 | 25,810 / 26,737 |
| FY0E | EBITDA | 12,668 | 7.3% | 8 | 12,330 / 12,904 |
| FY0E | EBIT | 11,951 | 9.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Net income (GAAP) | 7,212 | 1.2% | 17 | 7,013 / 7,484 |
| FY0E | Net income (normalized) | 9,671 | 8.5% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | EPS (GAAP) | 18.10 | 8.4% | 16 | 17.55 / 18.78 |
| FY0E | EPS (normalized) | 24.42 | 16.6% | 31 | 24.25 / 24.99 |
| FY0E | Free cash flow | 10,371 | 11.3% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Gross margin | 89.9% | -0.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Capital expenditure | -218.1 | 1.3% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Net debt | -768.9 | -40.1% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | ROE | 74.6% | 23.1% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Cash from operations | 10,497 | 10.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Revenue | 28,891 | 8.9% | 30 | 28,350 / 29,812 |
| FY+1E | EBITDA | 13,651 | 7.8% | 8 | 13,090 / 14,252 |
| FY+1E | EBIT | 12,936 | 8.2% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Net income (GAAP) | 8,148 | 13.0% | 17 | 7,474 / 8,812 |
| FY+1E | Net income (normalized) | 10,456 | 8.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | EPS (GAAP) | 21.35 | 18.0% | 16 | 19.99 / 23.61 |
| FY+1E | EPS (normalized) | 27.53 | 12.7% | 32 | 25.66 / 29.15 |
| FY+1E | Free cash flow | 11,240 | 8.4% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Gross margin | 89.5% | -0.4% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Capital expenditure | -268.5 | 23.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Net debt | -4,662 | 506.4% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Cash from operations | 11,516 | 9.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | ROE | 71.5% | -4.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Revenue | 31,384 | 8.6% | 15 | 30,587 / 33,344 |
| FY+2E | EBITDA | 14,575 | 6.8% | 5 | 13,934 / 14,997 |
| FY+2E | EBIT | 14,105 | 9.0% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Net income (GAAP) | 9,124 | 12.0% | 8 | 8,638 / 9,995 |
| FY+2E | Net income (normalized) | 11,366 | 8.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | EPS (GAAP) | 24.72 | 15.8% | 8 | 22.97 / 28.50 |
| FY+2E | EPS (normalized) | 31.45 | 14.3% | 15 | 29.35 / 34.94 |
| FY+2E | Free cash flow | 12,168 | 8.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Gross margin | 89.3% | -0.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Capital expenditure | -327.0 | 21.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Net debt | -3,277 | -29.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | ROE | 67.4% | -5.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Cash from operations | 12,758 | 10.8% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,695 | 11.8% | 27 | 6,597 / 6,764 |
| Q3 FY2026 | EBITDA | 3,140 | 5.3% | 8 | 3,005 / 3,248 |
| Q3 FY2026 | EBIT | 2,953 | 9.6% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 1,769 | -0.2% | 14 | 1,678 / 1,894 |
| Q3 FY2026 | Net income (normalized) | 2,403 | 9.0% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | EPS (GAAP) | 4.48 | 7.2% | 14 | 4.25 / 4.80 |
| Q3 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | 6.08 | 14.5% | 28 | 5.82 / 6.35 |
| Q3 FY2026 | Free cash flow | 2,184 | 4.9% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Gross margin | 89.9% | -0.3% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Capital expenditure | -61.00 | -0.6% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | ROE | 83.6% | 16.1% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Cash from operations | 2,184 | 3.9% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,832 | 10.3% | 26 | 6,510 / 6,957 |
| Q4 FY2026 | EBITDA | 3,192 | 6.1% | 8 | 2,978 / 3,310 |
| Q4 FY2026 | EBIT | 3,024 | 8.7% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 1,849 | -0.4% | 14 | 1,734 / 1,988 |
| Q4 FY2026 | Net income (normalized) | 2,459 | 8.7% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | EPS (GAAP) | 4.75 | 6.7% | 14 | 4.45 / 5.12 |
| Q4 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | 6.32 | 14.9% | 28 | 5.88 / 6.62 |
| Q4 FY2026 | Free cash flow | 3,193 | 21.6% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Gross margin | 89.7% | -0.4% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Capital expenditure | -55.56 | -11.7% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Cash from operations | 3,187 | 17.1% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | ROE | 82.7% | 7.9% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Revenue | 6,988 | 9.2% | 22 | 6,896 / 7,163 |
| Q1 FY2027 | EBITDA | 3,395 | 5.8% | 6 | 3,159 / 3,554 |
| Q1 FY2027 | EBIT | 3,212 | 8.9% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Net income (GAAP) | 2,029 | 7.4% | 12 | 1,893 / 2,229 |
| Q1 FY2027 | Net income (normalized) | 2,617 | 8.3% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | EPS (GAAP) | 5.21 | 13.4% | 12 | 4.89 / 5.82 |
| Q1 FY2027 | EPS (normalized) | 6.73 | 11.1% | 24 | 6.39 / 7.08 |
| Q1 FY2027 | Free cash flow | 2,938 | 27.9% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Gross margin | 89.6% | -0.5% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Capital expenditure | -59.11 | 11.4% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | Cash from operations | 3,061 | 28.4% | — | — / — |
| Q1 FY2027 | ROE | 91.4% | 11.2% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Revenue | 7,203 | 8.8% | 22 | 7,095 / 7,448 |
| Q2 FY2027 | EBITDA | 3,355 | 6.9% | 6 | 3,085 / 3,512 |
| Q2 FY2027 | EBIT | 3,198 | 11.4% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Net income (GAAP) | 2,020 | 18.0% | 12 | 1,892 / 2,121 |
| Q2 FY2027 | Net income (normalized) | 2,604 | 11.2% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | EPS (GAAP) | 5.23 | 23.1% | 12 | 4.91 / 5.63 |
| Q2 FY2027 | EPS (normalized) | 6.80 | 14.1% | 24 | 6.49 / 7.11 |
| Q2 FY2027 | Free cash flow | 2,432 | 7.0% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Gross margin | 89.4% | -0.5% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Capital expenditure | -64.64 | 16.5% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | ROE | 86.0% | 2.1% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2027 | Cash from operations | 2,550 | 18.7% | — | — / — |
Estimate momentum
The upgrades have largely stalled in the last 30 days, where both revenue and EPS marks are essentially flat.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Point-in-time consensus; analyst count is shown where supplied.
| Period | Metric | Lookback | Then | Now | Direction / magnitude | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | Revenue | 30d | 31,437 | 31,384 | down 0.2% | — |
| 2028 | Revenue | 90d | 31,097 | 31,384 | up 0.9% | — |
| 2028 | Revenue | 180d | 30,628 | 31,384 | up 2.5% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 27.54 | 27.53 | down 0.0% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 26.31 | 27.53 | up 4.6% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 180d | 26.34 | 27.53 | up 4.5% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 31.54 | 31.45 | down 0.3% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 29.29 | 31.45 | up 7.4% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 180d | 28.78 | 31.45 | up 9.3% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 30d | 28,901 | 28,891 | down 0.0% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 90d | 28,421 | 28,891 | up 1.7% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 180d | 28,365 | 28,891 | up 1.9% | — |
Beat / miss record
Adobe has topped consensus on both revenue and normalized EPS in each of the last eight quarters. The EPS surprises have run the larger of the two, roughly +1.7% to +3.2%, while revenue beats have been narrower at about +0.6% to +2.6%.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 8 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 8 consecutive beats.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective; analyst count shown per observation.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus as of | Actual | Surprise | Outcome | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,451 | 6,618 | 2.6% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | 5.81 | 5.96 | 2.5% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,277 | 6,398 | 1.9% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | 5.87 | 6.06 | 3.2% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | 6,111 | 6,194 | 1.4% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | 5.40 | 5.50 | 1.9% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | 5,909 | 5,988 | 1.3% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | 5.18 | 5.31 | 2.5% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | 5,805 | 5,873 | 1.2% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | 4.97 | 5.06 | 1.7% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | 5,662 | 5,714 | 0.9% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | 4.97 | 5.08 | 2.2% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | 5,541 | 5,606 | 1.2% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | 4.67 | 4.81 | 3.0% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | 5,373 | 5,408 | 0.6% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | 4.54 | 4.65 | 2.5% | Beat | — |
Where the street disagrees
Out-year earnings estimates widen as coverage thins — FY2028 normalized EPS spans $29.35 to $34.94 across 15 contributors and FY2029 rests on just one to two estimates — while EBITDA is covered by only a handful of analysts throughout.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Dispersion is high-low divided by absolute mean; analyst count shown per item.
| Period | Metric | Mean | Low | High | Spread / mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | EPS (GAAP) | 24.72 | 22.97 | 28.50 | 22.4% | 8 |
| Q1 FY2027 | EPS (GAAP) | 5.21 | 4.89 | 5.82 | 17.9% | 12 |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 31.45 | 29.35 | 34.94 | 17.8% | 15 |
| 2027 | EPS (GAAP) | 21.35 | 19.99 | 23.61 | 17.0% | 16 |
| Q1 FY2027 | Net income (GAAP) | 2,029 | 1,893 | 2,229 | 16.6% | 12 |